“BERLIN, May 24 (Reuters) – The German economy was in recession in early 2023 after households spending in Europe’s economic engine finally succumbed to the pressure of high inflation.”

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-enters-recession-2023-05-25

What is a Recession?

“An overall decline in economic activity mainly observed as a slowdown in output and employment. It is not as severe or prolonged as a depression.

A recession is often defined as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falling for two successive quarters.”

Ref: https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100407826

What is Causing the 2023 Recession?

“Geopolitical tensions, energy market imbalances, persistently high inflation and rising interest rates have many investors and economists concerned…”

Ref: https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/recession-2023-what-to-watch-and-how-to-prepare

How Long Might Germany’s Recession Last?

“A consistent driver of the contraction was the country’s key manufacturing sector, where a deepening downturn is casting doubt on the rebound many anticipate for the coming quarters….

Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the German recession was probably already over, but added: ‘we see no strong recovery either’…

‘We see German GDP growth bumping along close to zero in Q2 and Q3, before re-accelerating in Q4, unless the Europe is stung by a very cold winter,’ said Mr Vistesen…”

Ref: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/25/germany-sinks-recession-olaf-scholz-avoided/

What are the Probability of Recession for Other Countries?

Below is an estimate from “World of Statistics“.

Ref: https://twitter.com/stats_feed/status/1661717138695147520?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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